Forecasters expect below-normal hurricane season

Published On: May 22 2013 12:24:00 PM HST

Hurricane season is almost here, and complacency and fearlessness are always big fears for emergency managers.

HONOLULU -

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced Wednesday that climate conditions point to a below-normal season in the Central Pacific Basin this year.

For 2013, the outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 5 percent chance of an above-normal season.

Forecasters expect 1 to 3 tropical cyclones to affect the Central Pacific this season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.

The outlook for a below-normal season is based upon the continuation of neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation conditions.  The Central Pacific Basin also remains on the low activity side of a multi-decadal cycle.

Historical records show that this combination of conditions tends to produce a less active hurricane season for the Central Pacific.

This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity in the central Pacific and does not predict whether, where, when, or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its Central Pacific hurricane outlook at a news conference in Honolulu Wednesday, and urged Hawaii residents to be fully prepared before the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs until Nov. 30.

"I encourage the public to become weather-ready by signing up for weather alerts, developing a family emergency plan, and building an emergency kit before hurricane season begins," said Ray Tanabe, director of NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center. "Just because the season is predicted to be 'below normal' does not mean that a single storm cannot have significant impacts."

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center continuously monitors weather conditions, employing a network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners.  This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise that serves as the basis for the hurricane center’s track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days.

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The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.

NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.

Working with partners, NOAA’s National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources.

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